Our publications

Newsletter – September 2020

Measured risks

Equity markets have clearly been buoyed by all the debt issuance. We have adopted a balanced approach to the “winner-takes-all” conundrum. In August, we started to see the effects of the easing monetary policy wash through into emerging markets of smaller Asian countries and Latin America, as the tsunami of liquidity tries to find a home. Continued USD weakness will support this reflation, not only through higher commodity prices but also the continued possibility of lower domestic rates. This encouraged investors to start picking up several of the laggards and not just the momentum plays. Thus, we are comfortable that we are still in the early stages of this market broadening, and that it will probably be the dominant theme into year end.

ReadSubscribe to newsletter
Blog - July 2020

Talking to our portfolio

Recently, we were talking to several of the Latin American banks in our portfolios. Now, talking to banks can be less than exciting at times. Across the world, they are heavily regulated, so you get into intense discussions about Basel III, tier 1 capital, and risk weighted models. If you are really lucky, you get to discuss if their net interest margin is going to be 0.305% or 0.310%. Banks can often be the weak link in  an economy. As we saw in the global financial crisis, when the system gets infected, it can take years to recover. That is why they receive so much scrutiny. This time around, things were decidedly different.

Read
Newsletter - June 2020

Recovery mode

We are not expecting depression-like conditions that would be caused by a very weak return of commercial and consumer activity resulting in massive permanent job losses. Our scenario remains a constructive one, supported by colossal crisis stimuli by central banks and governments alike and a willingness to become even more proactive with further major fiscal injections. More than 7 trillion USD globally have been committed to relief efforts and more trillions will be injected into the economy to support its recovery. There are other factors at play than a vaccine that can contribute to an appropriate climate for recovery.

Read
Newsletter – March 2020

Panic

Emerging markets never cease to make headlines. What a year it has been. Between the trade war that affected expectations in most countries and the Chinese economic slowdown/rebalancing that was already underway, emerging markets as a whole managed to deliver a return in the high teens in 2019, which was – momentarily, in our opinion – wiped out in the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, as were the returns of most assets globally. The coronavirus problem was taken by the horns after an early public outcry at the sluggishness of unsuspecting authorities. The whole world has ground to a halt, but we think investors can look beyond the present damage. This is a unanimous problem.

Read
Blog – November 2019

Remember, remember the 8th of November

As India marked the 3rd anniversary of Prime Minister Modi’s attack on currency hoarders and tax evaders, we look back at the aftermath of one of the biggest events of demonetization the world has ever seen – leaving over a billion people cash-crunched. Despite the mess that the country went through, there have been improvements in various areas that lay the foundations of a stronger and more economically prosperous India. The country has seen one of the largest financial inclusions globally in recent years.

Read
Newsletter – November 2019

De-risking ahead of uncertainty 

While we never expected the trade war scare to materialize into a panic for major corporations, the deluge of (in our opinion, overly) alarmist economic commentators did give most investors the jitters in Q3. Fortunately, before the latest skirmishes and as a routine assessment in line with our four-pronged macroeconomic analysis, we had completed a de-risking of our portfolio. The tilting of allocations away from our higher volatility names in China toward a neutral positioning in that country and an increase in our lower-risk positions in India was effective to provide downside protection in the strategy. 

Read
Newsletter – August 2019

A colorful spring

The second quarter was a more challenging one, as the trade war shockingly went nuclear. It wasn’t lost on us that President Trump escalated the tensions to their peak on the very day that Michael Cohen, his ex-lawyer and “fixer”, reported to federal prison to start his three year sentence. This is a volatility phenomenon we have to work with. It has not yet become a structural problem, but currently acts as more of an irritant. The world needs Chinese growth to slow to more mundane levels, and to do so in an orderly way, as it needs to lose its fixation with specific targets that prevent its provincial officials from shedding lower value-add jobs. 

Read
Newsletter – May 2019

Our first quarter results

We have completed our first quarter with positive results in line with our targeted risk profile, which is lower than that of the overall market and we think speaks to our disciplined investment process.

Read
Blog – April 2019

Venezuela

Venezuela isn’t somewhere we invest in currently, but it crops up frequently in discussions. Its headline grabbing collapse scares potential investors who worry that other countries will follow suit, that a wave of contagion is about to overwhelm regional peers, thereby spreading misery and poverty in its wake. We try to be clear on this: the current collapse of Venezuela is definitely the end of the last wave, not the beginning of a new one.

Read
Newsletter – January 2019

Our first newsletter

A new chapter has begun at Mount Murray Investment. We are pleased to announce that our firm is now established and actively investing in global public markets. Our mission is simple: create value for our clients through a full market cycle and beyond with investment strategies that are relevant for the future.

Read
Blog – November 2018

Ordem E Progresso

This seems like a good time to remind ourselves about the motto that graces Brazil’s flag – “Order and Progress” – the promise to the Brazilian people. Yet few would say that the dream has been achieved so far. Brazil is all too often dismissed as the country “with a great future behind it”.

Read